ａｕカブコム証券チーフストラテジスト河合達憲氏
日経平均株価は好調な企業業績を反映して上昇基調に転じ、来年６月には４万５０００円まで値上がりすると予想する。しかし、その後は大幅に下落する可能性がある。
１月以降、企業による２０２５年３月期業績予想の上方修正などが株価を押し上げるだろう。増配や自社株買いへの期待も高まりそうだ。２６年３月期も増益を予想する企業が多いとみている。
しかし、来夏の参院選でも与党の苦戦が想定され、政治不信が株価の重しとなりそうだ。９月には３万８０００円まで下落する局面があるかもしれない。
米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）が段階的な利下げを続け、日銀は利上げを継続するだろう。日米金利差縮小が円高・ドル安を招き、１ドル＝１２０円まで円が買われる可能性がある。このため、円高を嫌気して輸出関連株の売りが加速する場面もありそうだ。
| 2025/04/08 00:06 | 「弱気になるな！」＝株価急落で―トランプ氏 |
| 2025/04/07 07:36 | 米財務長官、関税での物価上昇「一度限り」＝ＦＲＢは利下げへ |
| 2025/04/05 18:18 | 景気不安、世界で拡大＝相互関税で株価急落―トランプ氏「政策変えない」 |
| 2025/04/05 07:34 | トランプ氏称賛発言否定＝経済政策で投資家のバフェット氏 |
| 2025/04/05 05:45 | トランプ関税「想定以上」＝物価上昇、成長鈍化を警戒―米ＦＲＢ議長 |
| 2025/04/05 00:42 | 米ＦＲＢ議長に利下げ要求＝トランプ氏、行動遅いと批判 |
| 2025/04/03 14:34 | トランプ関税、世界を圧迫＝米経済に不況リスク |
| 2025/04/03 09:00 | トランプ関税・識者談話 |
| 2025/04/02 14:21 | 年央に回復へ |
| 2025/04/01 14:27 | 目先は下値模索 |
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